JTEKT Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Investors in JTEKT Corporation (TSE:6473) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.6% to close at JP¥1,160 following the release of its annual results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of JP¥1.9t were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 38% to hit JP¥40.36 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, JTEKT's four analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥1.89t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 65% to JP¥71.02. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.88t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥75.10 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for JTEKT

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥1,350, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JTEKT at JP¥1,400 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,320. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting JTEKT is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that JTEKT's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.09% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 9.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that JTEKT is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,350, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on JTEKT. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for JTEKT going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for JTEKT (1 is significant!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.