Toyota Boshoku Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Toyota Boshoku Corporation (TSE:3116) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.6% to JP¥1,911 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting JP¥488b, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 15%, coming in at just JP¥48.73 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Toyota Boshoku

Following last week's earnings report, Toyota Boshoku's six analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥1.94t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 12% to JP¥266 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.99t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥273 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of JP¥2,400, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Toyota Boshoku's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Toyota Boshoku at JP¥2,900 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,100. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Toyota Boshoku shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.6% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.2% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.7% per year. It's pretty clear that Toyota Boshoku's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Toyota Boshoku analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Toyota Boshoku has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com