We Think Iren (BIT:IRE) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Iren SpA (BIT:IRE) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Iren

How Much Debt Does Iren Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2021 Iren had debt of €3.98b, up from €3.50b in one year. However, it also had €794.1m in cash, and so its net debt is €3.19b.

A Look At Iren's Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, Iren had liabilities of €1.64b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €4.93b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of €794.1m and €1.03b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total €4.75b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's €3.58b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Iren's net debt is 3.7 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. However, its interest coverage of 10.3 is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. Notably Iren's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year. Ideally it can diminish its debt load by kick-starting earnings growth. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Iren's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Iren recorded free cash flow of 43% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Iren's level of total liabilities was disappointing. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We should also note that Integrated Utilities industry companies like Iren commonly do use debt without problems. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Iren stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Iren .

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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