ERG S.p.A.'s (BIT:ERG) On An Uptrend But Financial Prospects Look Pretty Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?

ERG (BIT:ERG) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 14% over the last three months. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak fundamentals, as long-term financial performance of a business is what ultimately dictates market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to ERG's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

See our latest analysis for ERG

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for ERG is:

5.7% = €121m ÷ €2.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every €1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of €0.06.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

ERG's Earnings Growth And 5.7% ROE

On the face of it, ERG's ROE is not much to talk about. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 6.8%, we may spare it some thought. Having said that, ERG has shown a modest net income growth of 13% over the past five years. Taking into consideration that the ROE is not particularly high, we reckon that there could also be other factors at play which could be influencing the company's growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

We then compared ERG's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 24% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if ERG is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is ERG Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

ERG has a very high three-year median payout ratio of 116% suggesting that the company's shareholders are getting paid from more than just the company's earnings. However, this hasn't really hampered its ability to grow as we saw earlier. It would still be worth keeping an eye on that high payout ratio, if for some reason the company runs into problems and business deteriorates.

Additionally, ERG has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 60% over the next three years. As a result, the expected drop in ERG's payout ratio explains the anticipated rise in the company's future ROE to 11%, over the same period.

Conclusion

Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on ERG. Although the company has shown a fair bit of growth in earnings, yet the low ROE and the low rate of reinvestment makes us skeptical about the continuity of that growth, especially when or if the business comes to face any threats. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.