ERG S.p.A. Just Missed EPS By 5.5%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on ERG S.p.A. (BIT:ERG), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its yearly results last week. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 3.4% short of analyst estimates at €738m, and statutory earnings of €1.28 per share missed forecasts by 5.5%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for ERG

Following the latest results, ERG's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of €832.5m in 2025. This would be a notable 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €859.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.54 in 2025. So we can see that while the consensus made a small dip in revenue estimates, it no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that the market is now more focused on revenue after the latest result.

The average price target fell 6.1% to €24.83, withthe analysts clearly having become less optimistic about ERG'sprospects following its latest earnings. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ERG at €32.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €20.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that ERG's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 13% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 6.1% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.5% per year. Not only are ERG's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their revenue estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of ERG's future valuation.

At least one of ERG's six analysts has provided estimates out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with ERG , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.