A Fresh Look at ENAV (BIT:ENAV) Valuation After Upgraded Outlook and Record Flight Growth

ENAV (BIT:ENAV) just delivered its nine-month 2025 earnings update, highlighting growth in both air traffic and revenue. The company handled record flights, confirmed its upgraded outlook, and maintained strong performance amid regulatory changes.

See our latest analysis for ENAV.

On the heels of record traffic and raised guidance, ENAV’s share price has gained 10.2% year-to-date. This reflects building momentum as investors warm to its improving financial outlook. With a 27.2% total return over the past year, long-term holders have been rewarded as confidence in the company's trajectory grows.

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With ENAV delivering robust results and its share price moving higher, the key question is whether the current valuation offers a genuine entry point for investors or if the market has already priced in all the company’s future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

While ENAV’s last close at €4.55 trades just above the narrative’s fair value of €4.49, the consensus picture suggests shares reflect their true worth. The stage is set for a fascinating growth story grounded in a surge of air traffic and ongoing operational improvements.

Strong operational execution, delivering record levels of traffic alongside almost zero delays and high efficiency, is positioning ENAV to consistently achieve the full performance bonus (€13M) as part of its regulatory framework. This supports higher EBITDA and net income, with further potential uplift as these bonuses scale with rising volumes and service quality.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how analysts see ENAV’s financial future? Their case is driven by big revenue expectations and a profit outlook that breaks with historical trends. There are some shock numbers and hidden scenarios behind this valuation. Only one way to find out what they are.

Result: Fair Value of €4.49 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising operating costs and ongoing dependence on Italy’s airspace present real threats to ENAV’s future earnings and revenue stability.

Find out about the key risks to this ENAV narrative.

Another View: What the DCF Model Suggests

Switching perspectives, our SWS DCF model presents ENAV’s valuation in a less optimistic light. With shares trading above the model’s estimate of fair value (€4.06), it suggests there may be a premium reflected in today’s price. Is the market placing too much confidence in future growth, or is there still potential yet to be realised?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own ENAV Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, it only takes a few minutes to shape your own view and Do it your way

A great starting point for your ENAV research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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