Almawave (BIT:AIW) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AIW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AIW (€4.25) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (€2.41)

AIW fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

AIW Stock Overview

Almawave S.p.A. an artificial intelligence (AI), natural language processing, and big data services in Italy.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (36x) is below the Software industry average (37.6x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 25.01% per year

Earnings grew by 159.6% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Almawave Competitors

TXT e-solutions

BIT:TXT

€149.0m

Relatech

BIT:RLT

€87.9m

Doxee

BIT:DOX

€81.2m

Growens

BIT:GROW

€73.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Almawave
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€4.25
52 Week High	€5.76
52 Week Low	€3.60
Beta	0
1 Month Change	7.32%
3 Month Change	0%
1 Year Change	-11.64%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-6.80%

Recent News & Updates

Apr 13

Almawave's (BIT:AIW) Earnings Are Of Questionable Quality

Almawave S.p.A. ( BIT:AIW ) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. We did some digging, and we found...

Shareholder Returns

	AIW	IT Software	IT Market
7D	-0.7%	-0.4%	1.9%
1Y	-11.6%	-13.3%	-14.8%

Return vs Industry: AIW exceeded the Italian Software industry which returned -13.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AIW exceeded the Italian Market which returned -15.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AIW's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AIW volatility
AIW Average Weekly Movement	3.8%
Software Industry Average Movement	5.2%
Market Average Movement	4.9%
10% most volatile stocks in IT Market	7.7%
10% least volatile stocks in IT Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: AIW is less volatile than 75% of Italian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AIW's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2008	286	Valeria Sandei	https://www.almawave.it

Almawave S.p.A. an artificial intelligence (AI), natural language processing, and big data services in Italy. It offers Iride, a modular suite of products that integrates AI technologies, text and voice, and algorithms to optimize customer experience, improve business processes, enable information analysis, and data governance; and Audioma, a suite of integrated products for speech recognition in approximately 30 languages that offers transcription, subtitling, and automatic translation services, as well as command and control systems. The company also provides Verbamatic, an automatic indexing platform for audio/video media with speech-to-text transcription and search of contents of interest; and FlyScribe, a multi-language platform for automatic and on-demand transcription of board and council meetings, subtitling of events for accessibility, and audio guide generation purposes, as well as provides consulting services.

Almawave Fundamentals Summary

How do Almawave's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AIW fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€124.69m
Earnings (TTM)	€3.46m
Revenue (TTM)	€32.89m

36.0x

P/E Ratio

3.8x

P/S Ratio

Is AIW overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AIW income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€32.89m
Cost of Revenue	€25.63m
Gross Profit	€7.26m
Other Expenses	€3.80m
Earnings	€3.46m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.12
Gross Margin	22.07%
Net Profit Margin	10.52%
Debt/Equity Ratio	1.7%

How did AIW perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AIW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AIW?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AIW. This is calculated by dividing AIW's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AIW's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€124.69m

AIW key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.5x
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AIW's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AIW PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AIW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	69.4x
TXT TXT e-solutions	16x	19.2%	€149.0m
RLT Relatech	24.1x	25.6%	€87.9m
DOX Doxee	48.7x	36.2%	€81.2m
GROW Growens	188.7x	55.6%	€73.0m
AIW Almawave	36x	25.0%	€124.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AIW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36x) compared to the peer average (69.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AIW's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Software Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AIW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36x) compared to the Italian Software industry average (37.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AIW's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AIW PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	36x
Fair PE Ratio	30.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AIW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AIW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AIW (€4.25) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€2.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AIW is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is Almawave forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

25.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AIW's forecast earnings growth (25% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: AIW's earnings (25% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Italian market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AIW's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AIW's revenue (14% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Italian market (-0.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AIW's revenue (14% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AIW's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.3%).

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Almawave performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

20.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AIW has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AIW's current net profit margins (10.5%) are higher than last year (5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AIW's earnings have grown significantly by 20.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AIW's earnings growth over the past year (159.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (20.6% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: AIW earnings growth over the past year (159.6%) exceeded the Software industry 72.2%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: AIW's Return on Equity (8.5%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Almawave's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AIW's short term assets (€49.5M) exceed its short term liabilities (€26.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: AIW's short term assets (€49.5M) exceed its long term liabilities (€2.5M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AIW has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: AIW's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 299.2% to 1.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AIW's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (732.8%).

Interest Coverage: AIW's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (11.6x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is Almawave current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate AIW's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate AIW's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AIW's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AIW's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as AIW has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

CEO

Valeria Sandei (46 yo)

no data

Tenure

Ms. Valeria Sandei has been the Chief Executive Officer of Almawave since 2007 and serves as its Director. Ms. Sandei has been President of Almawave Do Brasil since 2007. She serves as Strategic Marketing...

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 8.4%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/16 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/16 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31