Carvana Co.

BIT:1CVNA Stock Report

Market Cap: €74.8b

Carvana Valuation

Is 1CVNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1CVNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1CVNA (€339.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€471.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1CVNA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1CVNA?

Key metric: As 1CVNA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1CVNA. This is calculated by dividing 1CVNA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1CVNA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio90x
EarningsUS$629.00m
Market CapUS$87.66b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1CVNA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1CVNA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.5x
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive
30.7x6.47%US$76.3b
AZO AutoZone
22.2x8.41%US$54.7b
ADNOCDIST Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution PJSC
18.1x6.81%د.إ49.1b
PAG Penske Automotive Group
11x2.39%US$10.4b
1CVNA Carvana
90x25.78%€87.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1CVNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (90x) compared to the peer average (20.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1CVNA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1CVNA 90.0xIndustry Avg. 18.1xNo. of Companies17PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1CVNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (90x) compared to the European Specialty Retail industry average (18.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1CVNA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1CVNA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio90x
Fair PE Ratio29.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1CVNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (90x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1CVNA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€339.10
€378.67
+11.67%
12.42%€466.51€279.91n/a23
Dec ’26€330.65
€362.46
+9.62%
11.03%€430.70€284.26n/a23
Nov ’26€261.90
€365.35
+39.50%
11.67%€433.75€286.28n/a20
Oct ’26€327.55
€359.59
+9.78%
11.76%€426.10€281.23n/a20
Sep ’26€317.45
€355.38
+11.95%
11.99%€429.00€283.14n/a20
Aug ’26€322.30
€349.62
+8.48%
16.76%€437.90€201.43n/a20
Jul ’26€287.30
€256.05
-10.88%
20.33%€339.28€91.61n/a20
Jun ’26€286.20
€254.41
-11.11%
18.37%€301.17€95.67n/a20
May ’26€210.05
€229.00
+9.02%
21.06%€301.14€95.66n/a20
Apr ’26n/a
€245.96
0%
21.65%€314.91€100.03n/a20
Mar ’26n/a
€264.82
0%
19.46%€337.47€104.13n/a20
Feb ’26n/a
€244.46
0%
21.37%€337.65€104.19n/a20
Jan ’26n/a
€235.84
0%
19.89%€312.81€102.37€368.4520
Dec ’25n/a
€235.10
0%
19.27%€305.44€103.09€330.6520
Nov ’25n/a
€216.62
0%
24.86%€295.30€99.66€261.9019
Oct ’25n/a
€139.85
0%
21.48%€180.68€65.04€327.5521
Sep ’25n/a
€134.35
0%
21.79%€179.76€64.71€317.4519
Aug ’25n/a
€132.18
0%
25.48%€185.34€50.04€322.3019
Jul ’25n/a
€102.22
0%
23.96%€140.45€50.56€287.3017
Jun ’25n/a
€97.87
0%
21.20%€125.00€50.00€286.2017
May ’25n/a
€61.01
0%
22.29%€83.94€24.25€210.0518
Apr ’25n/a
€58.52
0%
23.57%€83.79€24.21n/a18
Mar ’25n/a
€51.20
0%
23.71%€73.76€23.97n/a17
Feb ’25n/a
€35.65
0%
31.67%€57.24€13.85n/a18
Jan ’25n/a
€33.56
0%
30.51%€56.69€13.72n/a17
€378.23
Fair Value
10.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
23
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/03 07:17
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/02 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Carvana Co. is covered by 49 analysts. 24 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Colin SebastianBaird
Craig KennisonBaird
John BabcockBarclays