Eli Lilly and Company

BIT:1LLY Stock Report

Market Cap: €695.3b

Eli Lilly Valuation

Is 1LLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1LLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€1.15k
Fair Value
32.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
26
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 1LLY (€778.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€1146.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1LLY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1LLY?

Key metric: As 1LLY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1LLY. This is calculated by dividing 1LLY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1LLY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio71x
EarningsUS$10.59b
Market CapUS$752.28b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1LLY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1LLY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.6x
REC Recordati Industria Chimica e Farmaceutica
26.2x11.0%€10.9b
JNJ Johnson & Johnson
28x7.9%US$394.3b
NOVO B Novo Nordisk
23.2x12.6%DKK 2.3t
AZN AstraZeneca
33.1x15.8%UK£180.0b
1LLY Eli Lilly
71x21.9%€752.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (71x) compared to the peer average (27.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1LLY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Pharmaceuticals Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1LLY 71.0xIndustry Avg. 23.9xNo. of Companies8PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1LLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (71x) compared to the European Pharmaceuticals industry average (23.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1LLY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1LLY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio71x
Fair PE Ratio73.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1LLY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (71x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (73.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1LLY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€778.20
€933.98
+20.0%
11.9%€1,099.92€573.07n/a26
Mar ’26€864.20
€960.20
+11.1%
12.8%€1,147.40€597.80n/a26
Feb ’26€790.70
€940.85
+19.0%
15.0%€1,147.99€559.53n/a26
Jan ’26€745.60
€934.84
+25.4%
15.1%€1,187.50€551.00n/a27
Dec ’25€754.30
€938.21
+24.4%
14.9%€1,181.25€548.10n/a27
Nov ’25€759.40
€928.20
+22.2%
13.9%€1,153.50€535.22n/a27
Oct ’25€798.50
€891.50
+11.6%
13.9%€1,029.94€519.45n/a25
Sep ’25€853.10
€892.88
+4.7%
13.9%€1,040.52€524.78n/a25
Aug ’25€768.50
€851.63
+10.8%
16.3%€1,035.12€500.42n/a26
Jul ’25€854.40
€811.93
-5.0%
14.0%€961.97€504.58n/a25
Jun ’25€752.60
€787.22
+4.6%
12.7%€944.64€498.64n/a26
May ’25€724.40
€790.63
+9.1%
13.3%€956.81€505.06n/a26
Apr ’25€727.50
€737.95
+1.4%
14.1%€925.40€462.70n/a26
Mar ’25€718.00
€708.35
-1.3%
15.0%€922.80€461.40€864.2027
Feb ’25€602.00
€586.79
-2.5%
13.9%€702.88€396.12€790.7026
Jan ’25€526.50
€566.94
+7.7%
13.6%€660.77€390.83€745.6027
Dec ’24€547.50
€568.86
+3.9%
14.2%€663.37€395.08€754.3027
Nov ’24€525.50
€561.08
+6.8%
16.2%€670.38€321.03€759.4026
Oct ’24€509.00
€537.97
+5.7%
14.0%€605.38€321.61€798.5026
Sep ’24€515.50
€491.63
-4.6%
16.8%€580.21€274.98€853.1027
Aug ’24€413.00
€430.88
+4.3%
14.2%€512.51€272.13€768.5027
Jul ’24€428.80
€411.76
-4.0%
14.8%€501.71€273.66€854.4023
Jun ’24€403.80
€407.09
+0.8%
14.7%€472.63€279.66€752.6023
May ’24€360.20
€359.69
-0.1%
15.0%€442.08€246.11€724.4023
Apr ’24€314.50
€346.47
+10.2%
13.3%€409.32€248.91€727.5023
Mar ’24€296.00
€357.38
+20.7%
12.8%€416.43€253.23€718.0022
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 26 Analysts
€938.85
Fair Value
17.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
26
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/24 06:51
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/21 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Eli Lilly and Company is covered by 55 analysts. 27 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ToungArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Luisa HectorBerenberg