Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Amplifon S.p.A. (BIT:AMP) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Amplifon
What Is Amplifon's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2020 Amplifon had debt of €1.16b, up from €977.8m in one year. However, it does have €462.7m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €692.9m.
How Strong Is Amplifon's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Amplifon had liabilities of €568.4m falling due within a year, and liabilities of €1.78b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €462.7m as well as receivables valued at €228.2m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €1.66b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Amplifon has a market capitalization of €7.26b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Amplifon has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.5 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 5.7 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. The bad news is that Amplifon saw its EBIT decline by 17% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Amplifon's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Amplifon actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Amplifon was the fact that it seems able to convert EBIT to free cash flow confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. To be specific, it seems about as good at (not) growing its EBIT as wet socks are at keeping your feet warm. It's also worth noting that Amplifon is in the Healthcare industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Amplifon is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Amplifon that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About BIT:AMP
Amplifon
Engages in the distribution of hearing solutions and the fitting of customized products that helps people to rediscover various emotions of sound in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific.
Fair value with moderate growth potential.
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