The Tenaris S.A. (BIT:TEN) Interim Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for Tenaris S.A. (BIT:TEN) shares in the week since its half-yearly report, with the stock down 11% to €12.96. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$6.8b and statutory earnings per share of US$3.32. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Tenaris

After the latest results, the consensus from Tenaris' 15 analysts is for revenues of US$12.2b in 2024, which would reflect a considerable 9.1% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 33% to US$1.65 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$12.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.94 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €18.43 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Tenaris, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €22.24 and the most bearish at €14.66 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 17% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 21% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Tenaris' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at €18.43, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tenaris going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Tenaris has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com