Saipem (BIT:SPM) Secures $700 Million Shah Deniz Offshore Contracts Amid Growing Caspian Ambitions

• BP announced in October 2025 that a consortium led by Saipem and two SOCAR affiliates secured three offshore contracts valued at about US$700 million for the Shah Deniz Compression Project in the Caspian Sea.
• This award is expected to further strengthen Saipem's role in large-scale offshore energy infrastructure, expanding its presence in a key market alongside major industry partners.
• With these major contract wins expanding Saipem’s project pipeline, we’ll assess how they could influence its earnings visibility and backlog-driven outlook.

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Saipem Investment Narrative Recap

For shareholders to stay invested in Saipem, belief in the company’s ability to convert its record backlog into higher-margin earnings and cash flow is key. The recent US$700 million Shah Deniz Compression Project win should help solidify short-term earnings visibility, but investors should keep an eye on project execution risks and potential cost overruns that often accompany large-scale offshore commitments; at present, the impact appears beneficial but not transformative to the main risk narrative. Among recent announcements, Saipem’s Q2 and H1 2025 results showed continued revenue and profit growth, supporting the thesis that strong pipeline conversion and disciplined bidding are improving baseline financial performance. Paired with order inflow like Shah Deniz, these updates strengthen the case for reduced earnings volatility and more reliable margins over the near term. In contrast, investors should also be mindful of ongoing exposure to legacy project provisions and the risk of...

Read the full narrative on Saipem (it's free!)

Saipem's narrative projects €15.4 billion revenue and €637.8 million earnings by 2028. This requires a 0.0% yearly revenue decline and a €309.8 million earnings increase from €328.0 million today.

Uncover how Saipem's forecasts yield a €3.09 fair value, a 35% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twelve independent fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community stretch from €1.77 to €4.82 per share. As opinions span more than 170 percent, consider how execution risks on new offshore projects could weigh on the company’s longer term profitability targets.

Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Saipem - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Saipem Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Saipem research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Saipem research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Saipem's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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