New Risk • Sep 13
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 30% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.7x net interest cover). Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Sep 06
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: €0.02 (vs €0.022 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: €0.02. Revenue: €188.3m (flat on 2Q 2023). Net income: €2.05m (up 3.0% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.1% (in line with 2Q 2023). New Risk • Aug 08
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 10% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.8x net interest cover). Earnings have declined by 10% per year over the past 5 years. Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. New Risk • May 27
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 24% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.8x net interest cover). Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2024 earnings released First quarter 2024 results: EPS: €0.08. Revenue: €183.2m (flat on 1Q 2023). Net income: €2.84m (up 23% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 1.5% (up from 1.3% in 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 102% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • May 01
IVS Group S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 07, 2024 IVS Group S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 07, 2024, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time. Location: IVS Group registered office, 18 Rue de l'Eau L - 1449, L-Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg Grand Duch Of Luxembourg Luxembourg Reported Earnings • Mar 30
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: €0.18 (up from €0.091 in FY 2022). Revenue: €726.2m (up 35% from FY 2022). Net income: €16.2m (up 160% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.2% (up from 1.2% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 169%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.1% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 99% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: €0.01 loss per share (vs €0.02 profit in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: €0.01 loss per share (down from €0.02 profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue: €167.7m (down 2.5% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: €836.0k (down 147% from profit in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.9% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 68% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Sep 12
Price target increased by 18% to €6.00 Up from €5.10, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 9.9% above last closing price of €5.46. Stock is up 28% over the past year. The company posted earnings per share of €0.091 last year. Reported Earnings • Sep 11
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.022 (vs €0.031 in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: €0.022 (down from €0.031 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: €187.4m (up 82% from 2Q 2022). Net income: €1.99m (down 27% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.1% (down from 2.7% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.0% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 34% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 17
Upcoming dividend of €0.11 per share at 2.2% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 24 July 2023. Payment date: 26 July 2023. The company is paying out more than 100% of its earnings and cash flow. Trailing yield: 2.2%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.3%). Reported Earnings • May 17
First quarter 2023 earnings released First quarter 2023 results: EPS: €0.06. Revenue: €183.6m (up 99% from 1Q 2022). Net income: €2.30m (up €2.38m from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 1.3% (up from net loss in 1Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 42% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Apr 03
Price target decreased by 11% to €4.80 Down from €5.40, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 31% above last closing price of €3.66. Stock is down 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.25 for next year compared to €0.09 last year. Reported Earnings • Apr 02
Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: €0.09. Revenue: €542.1m (up 50% from FY 2021). Net income: €6.24m (up 16% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 1.2% (down from 1.5% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Consumer Retailing industry in Europe. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 21
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2022 has been updated. 2022 revenue forecast fell from €538.0m to €532.0m. EPS estimate rose from €0.10 to €0.30. Net income forecast to grow 207% next year vs 2.7% decline forecast for Online Retail industry in Italy. Consensus price target down from €5.40 to €5.10. Share price was steady at €3.84 over the past week. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 9 non-independent directors. Independent Non-Executive Director Marco Fumagalli was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Buying Opportunity • Nov 07
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 10%. The fair value is estimated to be €4.79, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.5% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 79% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 514% in the next 2 years. Buying Opportunity • Oct 24
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 3.1%. The fair value is estimated to be €4.69, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 9.5% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to grow by 79% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 514% in the next 2 years. Upcoming Dividend • Sep 12
Upcoming dividend of €0.11 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 19 September 2022. Payment date: 21 September 2022. Trailing yield: 2.6%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (0.4%). Reported Earnings • Sep 09
Second quarter 2022 earnings released Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: €103.6m (up 18% from 2Q 2021). Net income: €2.73m (down 53% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 2.6% (down from 6.7% in 2Q 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.9% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 20% growth forecast for the Online Retail industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 42 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • May 16
First quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues in line with analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: Revenue: €92.4m (up 16% from 1Q 2021). Net loss: €80.0k (loss narrowed 96% from 1Q 2021). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 14%, compared to a 35% growth forecast for the industry in Italy. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 11
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 15% share price decline to €4.05, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19x. Average forward P/E is 18x in the Online Retail industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 53% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target decreased to €7.00 Down from €7.80, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 41% above last closing price of €4.96. Stock is down 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.21 for next year compared to €0.14 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The new board member was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 11 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 3 independent directors (8 non-independent directors). Independent Non-Executive Director Marco Fumagalli was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Mar 10
Full year 2021 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: €0.14 (up from €0.41 loss in FY 2020). Net income: €5.36m (up €20.7m from FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 6.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 64 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Sep 10
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.17 (vs €0.13 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: €87.7m (up 43% from 2Q 2020). Net income: €5.85m (up €10.7m from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 6.7% (up from net loss in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 73 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Apr 02
Full year 2020 earnings released: €0.41 loss per share (vs €0.50 profit in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €329.9m (down 29% from FY 2019). Net loss: €15.3m (down 183% from profit in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 56% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 18% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 04
New 90-day high: €5.78 The company is up 21% from its price of €4.76 on 06 October 2020. The Italian market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Online Retail industry, which is up 11% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 09
New 90-day high: €5.26 The company is up 5.0% from its price of €4.99 on 10 September 2020. The Italian market is up 9.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Online Retail industry, which is up 10.0% over the same period. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 02
Analysts update estimates The 2020 consensus revenue estimate was lowered from €340.0m to €325.0m. The company's losses in 2020 are expected to improve with analysts raising their EPS forecasts from -€0.12 to -€0.10. The Online Retail industry in Italy is expected to see an average net income growth of 21% next year. The consensus price target of €6.60 was unchanged from the last update. Share price is down by 2.0% to €5.02 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 25
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to €5.24, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 48x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 40.9x. This compares to an average P/E of 33x in the Online Retail industry in Europe. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 58%. Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: €0.03 loss per share The company reported a poor third quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over expenses. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: €83.5m (down 24% from 3Q 2019). Net loss: €1.16m (down 146% from profit in 3Q 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 34% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 30% per year. Announcement • Nov 14
IVS Group S.A., Annual General Meeting, May 11, 2021 IVS Group S.A., Annual General Meeting, May 11, 2021. Agenda: To consider Annual Report 2020. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 24
New 90-day low: €4.52 The company is down 11% from its price of €5.06 on 24 July 2020. The Italian market is down 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Online Retail industry, which is up 4.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 05
New 90-day low: €4.55 The company is down 10.0% from its price of €5.06 on 07 July 2020. The Italian market is down 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Online Retail industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period. Announcement • Sep 30
IVS Group S.A. to Report First Half, 2020 Results on Sep 08, 2020 IVS Group S.A. announced that they will report first half, 2020 results on Sep 08, 2020