Monnalisa S.p.A.'s (BIT:MNL) Price Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 0.5x in the Luxury industry in Italy, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Monnalisa S.p.A.'s (BIT:MNL) P/S ratio of 0.2x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

View our latest analysis for Monnalisa

How Has Monnalisa Performed Recently?

Monnalisa could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

Keen to find out how analysts think Monnalisa's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Monnalisa would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 1.1%. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 17% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 0.1% as estimated by the sole analyst watching the company. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 7.8%.

With this in consideration, we think it doesn't make sense that Monnalisa's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining revenues are likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

While Monnalisa's P/S isn't anything out of the ordinary for companies in the industry, we didn't expect it given forecasts of revenue decline. With this in mind, we don't feel the current P/S is justified as declining revenues are unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If we consider the revenue outlook, the P/S seems to indicate that potential investors may be paying a premium for the stock.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Monnalisa (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.