Reflecting on Piovan's (BIT:PVN) Share Price Returns Over The Last Year

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 04, 2021

Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. Unfortunately the Piovan S.p.A. (BIT:PVN) share price slid 18% over twelve months. That's disappointing when you consider the market declined 7.0%. Piovan hasn't been listed for long, so although we're wary of recent listings that perform poorly, it may still prove itself with time. But it's up 5.5% in the last week.

Check out our latest analysis for Piovan

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Piovan share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 7.5%. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth.

It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.

On the other hand, we're certainly perturbed by the 5.4% decline in Piovan's revenue. Many investors see falling revenue as a likely precursor to lower earnings, so this could well explain the weak share price.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

BIT:PVN Earnings and Revenue Growth January 4th 2021

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Piovan stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Piovan, it has a TSR of -16% for the last year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Piovan shareholders are down 16% for the year (even including dividends), even worse than the market loss of 7.0%. There's no doubt that's a disappointment, but the stock may well have fared better in a stronger market. It's great to see a nice little 3.8% rebound in the last three months. This could just be a bounce because the selling was too aggressive, but fingers crossed it's the start of a new trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Piovan , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IT exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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