Banca Popolare di Sondrio S.p.A

BIT:BPSO Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.4b

Banca Popolare di Sondrio Valuation

Is BPSO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BPSO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BPSO (€7.48) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€5.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BPSO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BPSO?

Key metric: As BPSO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BPSO. This is calculated by dividing BPSO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BPSO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.2x
Earnings€544.46m
Market Cap€3.36b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BPSO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BPSO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.2x
CE Credito Emiliano
5.9x-11.5%€3.6b
BMPS Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena
2.9x-24.0%€7.8b
FBK FinecoBank Banca Fineco
14.4x-1.2%€9.3b
BPE BPER Banca
5.5x-5.6%€8.6b
BPSO Banca Popolare di Sondrio
6.2x-14.3%€3.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BPSO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the peer average (7.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BPSO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BPSO 6.2xIndustry Avg. 7.3xNo. of Companies44PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BPSO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BPSO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BPSO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.2x
Fair PE Ratio5.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BPSO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BPSO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€7.48
€7.60
+1.7%
10.1%€8.70€6.60n/a4
Nov ’25€6.98
€7.53
+7.9%
10.0%€8.70€6.60n/a4
Oct ’25€6.66
€7.53
+13.1%
10.0%€8.70€6.60n/a4
Sep ’25€6.99
€7.53
+7.7%
10.0%€8.70€6.60n/a4
Aug ’25€6.73
€7.43
+10.3%
8.2%€8.30€6.60n/a4
Jul ’25€6.88
€7.38
+7.2%
8.2%€8.30€6.60n/a4
Jun ’25€7.20
€7.38
+2.5%
8.2%€8.30€6.60n/a4
May ’25€7.86
€7.30
-7.1%
8.6%€8.30€6.60n/a4
Apr ’25€6.94
€6.55
-5.6%
7.2%€7.10€5.80n/a4
Mar ’25€7.08
€6.55
-7.5%
7.2%€7.10€5.80n/a4
Feb ’25€6.67
€6.23
-6.6%
5.3%€6.70€5.80n/a4
Jan ’25€5.86
€6.23
+6.2%
5.3%€6.70€5.80n/a4
Dec ’24€5.85
€6.05
+3.5%
9.7%€6.70€5.10n/a4
Nov ’24€5.23
€5.50
+5.2%
6.8%€6.00€5.10€6.983
Oct ’24€4.88
€5.40
+10.7%
4.5%€5.70€5.10€6.663
Sep ’24€4.35
€5.17
+18.8%
10.8%€5.70€4.40€6.993
Aug ’24€4.36
€5.10
+17.0%
9.7%€5.50€4.40€6.733
Jul ’24€3.82
€5.07
+32.8%
9.3%€5.40€4.40€6.883
Jun ’24€3.60
€5.43
+50.9%
0.9%€5.50€5.40€7.203
May ’24€4.12
€5.40
+31.0%
1.5%€5.50€5.30€7.863
Apr ’24€3.91
€5.40
+38.0%
1.5%€5.50€5.30€6.943
Mar ’24€4.78
€5.40
+13.0%
1.5%€5.50€5.30€7.083
Feb ’24€4.60
€4.83
+5.1%
5.9%€5.20€4.50€6.673
Jan ’24€3.78
€4.70
+24.3%
4.6%€5.00€4.50€5.863
Dec ’23€3.79
€4.70
+23.9%
4.6%€5.00€4.50€5.853
Nov ’23€3.64
€4.23
+16.2%
6.8%€4.60€3.90€5.233

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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