Banco BPM S.p.A.

BIT:BAMI Stock Report

Market Cap: €23.6b

Banco BPM Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Banco BPM is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 6.1% and 7.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 6.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 14.5% in 3 years.

Key information

6.1%

Earnings growth rate

6.21%

EPS growth rate

Banks earnings growth8.2%
Revenue growth rate7.2%
Future return on equity14.53%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated16 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Sep 16

BAMI: Fair Outlook Will Balance Revised Street Expectations With Earnings Resilience

Analysts have lifted their price target for Banco BPM from €15.49 to €15.88, supported by recent Street research that includes a higher €16.20 target from bullish coverage and updated assumptions for revenue growth, discount rate, profit margin and future P/E. What's in the News for Banco BPM Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena proposed a €27.7b all share offer on August 20, 2026 to acquire all ordinary shares of Banco BPM through a voluntary full public exchange offer, with an exchange ratio of 1.567 new Monte dei Paschi shares for each Banco BPM share.
Narrative Update • Aug 16

BAMI: Fair Outlook Will Balance Crédit Agricole Influence With Earnings Resilience

Analysts have lifted the Banco BPM price target by about €1.05 per share, supported by updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that are broadly in line with recent Street research, such as Deutsche Bank's move to €16.20. What's in the News for Banco BPM Crédit Agricole S.A. has notified the Italian government of plans to increase its economic exposure to Banco BPM to about 29.9% from 22.9% using derivative contracts, while stating it does not intend a full takeover.
Narrative Update • Jul 24

BAMI: Fair Outlook Will Weigh Crédit Agricole Influence Against Earnings Resilience

Analysts have raised the fair value estimate for Banco BPM from €14.12 to €14.44, citing higher price targets, including a recent move to €16.20, which reflect updated views on the bank's earnings power and valuation multiples. What’s in the News for Banco BPM Crédit Agricole S.A. has notified the Italian government of plans to raise its holding in Banco BPM to 29.9% from 22.9% using derivative contracts, according to Reuters.
Narrative Update • Jul 10

BAMI: Fair Outlook Will Balance Crédit Agricole Partnership With Earnings Resilience

Analysts have slightly raised their fair value estimate for Banco BPM, with the blended price target moving from about €13.78 to around €14.12. This reflects updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E.
Narrative Update • Jun 12

BAMI: Fair Outlook Will Balance Monte Paschi Bid With Earnings Resilience

Analysts have nudged their price target on Banco BPM slightly lower by €0.70, reflecting updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E after recent research that included a target cut and a downgrade. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts still see support for Banco BPM's valuation even after the €0.70 price target trim, indicating they view the recent research as a recalibration rather than a fundamental reset.
Narrative Update • May 28

BAMI: Fair Outlook Will Balance Rating Downgrades With Profitability And Capital Efficiency

Analysts have trimmed their price expectations for Banco BPM, with the updated fair value moving by about €0.13 to €13.71. This reflects recent price target cuts and a more cautious stance in research from firms that include Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
Narrative Update • Feb 10

BAMI: Fair Outlook Will Reflect Higher Earnings Assumptions And Cautious Rating Shift

Analysts have increased their fair value estimate for Banco BPM by €0.20 to €13.58, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, discount rate and future P/E that are broadly consistent with recent price target revisions reported in Street research. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts are comfortable lifting fair value and price targets, which supports the idea that the current valuation can be justified by their updated assumptions on earnings and P/E.
Narrative Update • Jan 26

BAMI: Fair Outlook As Higher Earnings Assumptions Meet Cautious Ratings Shift

Analysts have nudged their price expectations for Banco BPM higher to around €13.38, reflecting updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E. These revisions are broadly consistent with recent Street targets in the €12.70 to €13.28 range, despite mixed rating changes.
Narrative Update • Jan 09

BAMI: Balanced Outlook As Fee Shift And Cost Controls Meet Tighter Ratings

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Banco BPM slightly higher to €13.21, supported by modest adjustments to earnings assumptions and fresh price targets around €12.70 to €13.28 that reflect more cautious ratings while still clustering near the updated level. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Banco BPM points to a more mixed stance from the Street, with price targets moving closer to the new fair value estimate but ratings turning more cautious.
Narrative Update • Dec 15

BAMI: Diversified Fee Shift And Cost Controls Will Support Balanced Returns

Analysts have nudged their price target for Banco BPM slightly higher to about EUR 13.19, reflecting a modestly richer future valuation multiple and confidence in the bank's diversified, fee driven growth profile, despite only marginal adjustments to the discount rate and revenue growth assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates present a mixed but generally constructive view on Banco BPM, with higher price targets reflecting improved earnings power, even as some caution emerges around the stock's recent outperformance and execution risks.
Narrative Update • Nov 30

BAMI: Diversified Income And Cost Controls Will Support Balanced Outcomes Ahead

Analysts have slightly increased their average price target for Banco BPM, with the new consensus fair value rising from EUR 13.15 to EUR 13.19. They cite the bank's diversified revenue streams and improved growth outlook as primary drivers for the upward revision.
Narrative Update • Nov 16

BAMI: Diversified Income And Execution Will Drive Balanced Outcomes Ahead

Banco BPM’s analyst price target has risen from approximately €11.53 to €13.15 as analysts cite improved revenue growth forecasts, a lower discount rate, along with increased confidence in the bank’s diversified income streams and cost management efforts. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst reports on Banco BPM offer mixed perspectives, reflecting both optimism in the bank’s execution and ongoing caution around valuation and industry conditions.
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New Narrative • Nov 20

Anima Integration Fuels Growth But Faces Potential Revenue Instability And Management Challenges

The strategic partnership with Anima is poised to drive growth in revenue and commission income by integrating asset management and life insurance products.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

BIT:BAMI - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (EUR Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20286,7412,265N/AN/A13
12/31/20276,5332,168N/AN/A13
12/31/20266,3072,038N/AN/A13
6/30/20265,3331,928-7,384-7,279N/A
3/31/20265,4242,051N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20255,3832,082-4,054-3,542N/A
9/30/20255,7171,884N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20256,0342,3812,7613,431N/A
3/31/20255,5042,056N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20245,4541,915-5,227-4,971N/A
9/30/20244,9932,013N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20244,8521,385-9,655-9,443N/A
3/31/20244,8211,365N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20234,5861,2605,7045,893N/A
9/30/20234,4091,159N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20234,064955-10,808-10,533N/A
3/31/20233,861790N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20223,765682-16,002-15,676N/A
9/30/20223,433657N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20223,52255911,85112,079N/A
3/31/20223,423647N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20213,29756919,48319,681N/A
9/30/20213,242322N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20212,86927719,26419,441N/A
3/31/20212,760-31N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20202,587217,2937,446N/A
9/30/20203,076358N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20203,108299-348-161N/A
3/31/20203,727793N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20193,695797N/A-193N/A
9/30/20192,531102N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20193,058190N/A-115N/A
3/31/20192,491-133N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20182,607-60N/A202N/A
9/30/20183,076-689N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20182,506-918N/A-1,186N/A
3/31/20182,565-1,094N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20172,4311,854N/A1,010N/A
9/30/20171,0272,037N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20171,2061,775N/A-2,827N/A
3/31/20177871,822N/AN/AN/A
12/31/2016199-1,728N/A-5,329N/A
9/30/20161,117-631N/AN/AN/A
6/30/20161,706-248N/A1,635N/A
3/31/20161,889-85N/AN/AN/A
12/31/20152,555432N/A2,847N/A
9/30/2015-148-1,468N/AN/AN/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BAMI's forecast earnings growth (6.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).

Earnings vs Market: BAMI's earnings (6.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Italian market (10.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BAMI's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BAMI's revenue (7.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Italian market (5.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BAMI's revenue (7.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BAMI's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.5%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/20 01:00
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/18 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Banco BPM S.p.A. is covered by 30 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Juan Lopez CoboBanco Santander
Paola SabbioneBarclays
Marta BastoniBarclays