Update shared on 30 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.30%Analysts have slightly increased their average price target for Banco BPM, with the new consensus fair value rising from EUR 13.15 to EUR 13.19. They cite the bank's diversified revenue streams and improved growth outlook as primary drivers for the upward revision.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reflects a mix of optimism and caution regarding Banco BPM’s valuation, business model, and future prospects. Analysts have offered both supporting and critical perspectives anchored in the bank’s strategy, execution, and evolving operating environment.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts highlight Banco BPM's successful diversification of revenue streams. This positions the bank to better withstand fluctuations in interest rates.
- The acquisition of Anima is seen as a positive step toward increasing fee and commission income. Fee and commission income is projected to account for nearly 45% of total revenue by 2025, thereby reducing reliance on net interest income.
- Valuations have been lifted in several cases, with price targets moving higher from both existing and new coverage. This reflects improved growth outlooks and ongoing cost management efforts.
- Stronger growth prospects are forecast, supported by recent strategic initiatives and a sustained focus on operational efficiency.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts have expressed concerns around execution risk, particularly as Banco BPM transitions its revenue model and integrates new acquisitions.
- Some have opted for more conservative ratings, citing potential headwinds as fee and commission income grows in significance amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions.
- Despite higher price targets set by a few firms, there are reservations over whether current valuations fully reflect potential challenges in achieving ambitious cost control and growth targets.
- Market performance expectations have moderated for some, with forecasts that Banco BPM may underperform peers if execution on new strategic initiatives falls short.
What's in the News
- Banco BPM has completed the repurchase of 7,375,815 shares, representing 0.49% of its capital, for €45 million under the buyback announced on June 24, 2024. No additional shares were repurchased between April 1, 2025 and June 30, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: The fair value estimate has risen slightly, moving from €13.15 to €13.19 per share.
- Discount Rate: Analysts have marginally increased the discount rate from 11.15% to 11.39%.
- Revenue Growth: Projected annual revenue growth is nearly unchanged, inching up from 4.15% to 4.15%.
- Net Profit Margin: Forecast margins remain stable, with a negligible decrease from 32.31% to 32.31%.
- Future P/E: The forward price-to-earnings ratio has risen modestly from 13.05x to 13.11x.
Disclaimer
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