The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Immsi S.p.A. (BIT:IMS) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Immsi
What Is Immsi's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2020 Immsi had β¬1.08b of debt, an increase on β¬1.04b, over one year. However, it also had β¬267.3m in cash, and so its net debt is β¬816.6m.
A Look At Immsi's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Immsi had liabilities of β¬1.04b due within 12 months and liabilities of β¬737.5m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of β¬267.3m and β¬190.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total β¬1.32b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the β¬136.0m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Immsi would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Weak interest cover of 2.2 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.3 hit our confidence in Immsi like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, Immsi saw its EBIT tank 33% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Immsi's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Immsi reported free cash flow worth 12% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
Our View
To be frank both Immsi's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its interest cover fails to inspire much confidence. We think the chances that Immsi has too much debt a very significant. To us, that makes the stock rather risky, like walking through a dog park with your eyes closed. But some investors may feel differently. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Immsi (including 1 which is is concerning) .
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About BIT:IMS
Immsi
Operates in industrial, property and holding, and marine sectors in Italy, rest of Europe, India, the United States, and internationally.
Slight second-rate dividend payer.