Stock Analysis

Torrent Power Limited (NSE:TORNTPOWER) Shares Could Be 26% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

NSEI:TORNTPOWER
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Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for Torrent Power is ₹754 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Torrent Power's ₹952 share price signals that it might be 26% overvalued
  • Analyst price target for TORNTPOWER is ₹698 which is 7.5% below our fair value estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Torrent Power Limited (NSE:TORNTPOWER) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Torrent Power

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (₹, Millions) ₹33.9b ₹16.8b ₹28.1b ₹29.7b ₹31.5b ₹33.4b ₹35.5b ₹37.8b ₹40.3b ₹43.0b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Est @ 5.69% Est @ 6.00% Est @ 6.22% Est @ 6.37% Est @ 6.48% Est @ 6.55% Est @ 6.61%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 13% ₹29.9k ₹13.1k ₹19.3k ₹18.0k ₹16.8k ₹15.7k ₹14.7k ₹13.8k ₹13.0k ₹12.2k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹167b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹43b× (1 + 6.7%) ÷ (13%– 6.7%) = ₹689b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹689b÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= ₹196b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹362b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹952, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
NSEI:TORNTPOWER Discounted Cash Flow December 2nd 2023

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Torrent Power as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Torrent Power

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Threat
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Indian market.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price exceeding the intrinsic value? For Torrent Power, we've compiled three fundamental items you should look at:

  1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 2 warning signs for Torrent Power we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does TORNTPOWER's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Torrent Power is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.