NTPC Limited Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from NTPC Limited (NSE:NTPC), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at ₹471b, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 12%, coming in at ₹6.20 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for NTPC from eleven analysts is for revenues of ₹1.93t in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 3.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be ₹24.25, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹2.05t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹24.97 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for NTPC

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of ₹418, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on NTPC's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on NTPC, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹490 and the most bearish at ₹320 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await NTPC shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that NTPC's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than NTPC.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at ₹418, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NTPC going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for NTPC (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.