Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Gujarat Gas Limited (NSE:GUJGASLTD)?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Gujarat Gas' (NSE:GUJGASLTD) recent performance, when its stock has declined 17% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might gather that its strong financials could mean that the stock could potentially see an increase in value in the long-term, given how markets usually reward companies with good financial health. In this article, we decided to focus on Gujarat Gas' ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Gujarat Gas

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Gujarat Gas is:

16% = ₹13b ÷ ₹77b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each ₹1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made ₹0.16 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Gujarat Gas' Earnings Growth And 16% ROE

At first glance, Gujarat Gas seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 16%. This certainly adds some context to Gujarat Gas' moderate 6.3% net income growth seen over the past five years.

We then compared Gujarat Gas' net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 12% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is GUJGASLTD fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Gujarat Gas Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Gujarat Gas has a healthy combination of a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 30% (or a retention ratio of 70%) and a respectable amount of growth in earnings as we saw above, meaning that the company has been making efficient use of its profits.

Moreover, Gujarat Gas is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of eight years of paying a dividend. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 30%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 18%.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with Gujarat Gas' performance. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see a good amount of growth in its earnings. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.