Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Adani Total Gas Limited (NSE:ATGL) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Adani Total Gas
What Is Adani Total Gas's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2022 Adani Total Gas had ₹11.6b of debt, an increase on ₹6.30b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹3.98b, its net debt is less, at about ₹7.63b.
A Look At Adani Total Gas' Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Adani Total Gas had liabilities of ₹17.6b due within a year, and liabilities of ₹6.31b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹3.98b and ₹2.37b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling ₹17.5b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This state of affairs indicates that Adani Total Gas' balance sheet looks quite solid, as its total liabilities are just about equal to its liquid assets. So it's very unlikely that the ₹3.69t company is short on cash, but still worth keeping an eye on the balance sheet. But either way, Adani Total Gas has virtually no net debt, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Adani Total Gas has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.99. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 19.0 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. On the other hand, Adani Total Gas's EBIT dived 13%, over the last year. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Adani Total Gas's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Adani Total Gas actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
Our View
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Adani Total Gas was the fact that it seems able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. To be specific, it seems about as good at converting EBIT to free cash flow as wet socks are at keeping your feet warm. It's also worth noting that Adani Total Gas is in the Gas Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Adani Total Gas's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Adani Total Gas you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:ATGL
Mediocre balance sheet with questionable track record.
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