AVG Logistics Limited's (NSE:AVG) 37% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

AVG Logistics Limited (NSE:AVG) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 37% gain in the last month alone. The last month tops off a massive increase of 247% in the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, AVG Logistics' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 53.2x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 27x and even P/E's below 15x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for AVG Logistics as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for AVG Logistics

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on AVG Logistics will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, AVG Logistics would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 408%. However, the latest three year period hasn't been as great in aggregate as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 24% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that AVG Logistics is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On AVG Logistics' P/E

Shares in AVG Logistics have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that AVG Logistics currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 4 warning signs for AVG Logistics (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.