AVG Logistics Limited (NSE:AVG) Soars 41% But It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward

AVG Logistics Limited (NSE:AVG) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 41% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 40% in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, AVG Logistics may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.6x, since almost half of all companies in India have P/E ratios greater than 28x and even P/E's higher than 53x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

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Recent times have been quite advantageous for AVG Logistics as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Check out our latest analysis for AVG Logistics

Although there are no analyst estimates available for AVG Logistics, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, AVG Logistics would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 124% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 1,479% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 24% over the next year, materially lower than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it odd that AVG Logistics is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It looks like most investors are not convinced the company can maintain its recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On AVG Logistics' P/E

Even after such a strong price move, AVG Logistics' P/E still trails the rest of the market significantly. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that AVG Logistics currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is higher than the wider market forecast. There could be some major unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching this positive performance. It appears many are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because the persistence of these recent medium-term conditions would normally provide a boost to the share price.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 4 warning signs for AVG Logistics (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.