The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that HFCL Limited (NSE:HFCL) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for HFCL
What Is HFCL's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, HFCL had ₹8.97b of debt, up from ₹7.33b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹4.60b, its net debt is less, at about ₹4.37b.
How Healthy Is HFCL's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, HFCL had liabilities of ₹20.6b due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₹2.52b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹4.60b as well as receivables valued at ₹19.0b due within 12 months. So it actually has ₹468.6m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
Having regard to HFCL's size, it seems that its liquid assets are well balanced with its total liabilities. So while it's hard to imagine that the ₹97.7b company is struggling for cash, we still think it's worth monitoring its balance sheet.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
With net debt sitting at just 0.71 times EBITDA, HFCL is arguably pretty conservatively geared. And it boasts interest cover of 8.7 times, which is more than adequate. The good news is that HFCL has increased its EBIT by 7.9% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is HFCL's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, HFCL recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
Our View
HFCL's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. In particular, we are dazzled with its net debt to EBITDA. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that HFCL is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for HFCL you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if HFCL might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:HFCL
HFCL
Manufactures and sells telecom products in India and internationally.
Excellent balance sheet with proven track record.