UPL Limited (NSE:UPL) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

UPL Limited (NSE:UPL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.5% to ₹712 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of ₹92b and statutory earnings per share of ₹9.62 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that UPL is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on UPL after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for UPL from 21 analysts is for revenues of ₹501.9b in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 7.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 117% to ₹30.70. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹501.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹32.98 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for UPL

The consensus price target held steady at ₹726, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values UPL at ₹864 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹520. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting UPL's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.8% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.2% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, UPL is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹726, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on UPL. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for UPL going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for UPL (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.