Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Pennar Industries Limited (NSE:PENIND) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Pennar Industries
What Is Pennar Industries's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2021 Pennar Industries had debt of ₹5.32b, up from ₹4.53b in one year. However, it does have ₹1.32b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about ₹4.00b.
How Healthy Is Pennar Industries' Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Pennar Industries had liabilities of ₹10.2b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹1.78b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹1.32b as well as receivables valued at ₹4.35b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹6.29b.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's ₹5.04b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While Pennar Industries's debt to EBITDA ratio (4.3) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 0.56, suggesting high leverage. It seems that the business incurs large depreciation and amortisation charges, so maybe its debt load is heavier than it would first appear, since EBITDA is arguably a generous measure of earnings. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Even worse, Pennar Industries saw its EBIT tank 65% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Pennar Industries will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Pennar Industries actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
Our View
To be frank both Pennar Industries's interest cover and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its level of total liabilities fails to inspire much confidence. Considering all the factors previously mentioned, we think that Pennar Industries really is carrying too much debt. To our minds, that means the stock is rather high risk, and probably one to avoid; but to each their own (investing) style. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 6 warning signs for Pennar Industries you should be aware of, and 2 of them make us uncomfortable.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About NSEI:PENIND
Pennar Industries
Operates as an engineering company in India and internationally.
Reasonable growth potential with proven track record.