NMDC Limited Beat Revenue Forecasts By 5.5%: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Investors in NMDC Limited (NSE:NMDC) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.2% to close at ₹75.79 following the release of its second-quarter results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of ₹64b coming in 5.5% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of ₹7.44, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, NMDC's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be ₹271.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 9.4% to ₹8.74. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹265.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹8.13 in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for NMDC

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of ₹77.44, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on NMDC, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹91.01 and the most bearish at ₹66.01 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that NMDC's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.7% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than NMDC.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards NMDC following these results. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹77.44, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for NMDC going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for NMDC (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.