The five-year decline in earnings for Navin Fluorine International NSE:NAVINFLUOR) isn't encouraging, but shareholders are still up 149% over that period
The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. Long term Navin Fluorine International Limited (NSE:NAVINFLUOR) shareholders would be well aware of this, since the stock is up 145% in five years. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 12% gain in the last three months.
In light of the stock dropping 4.7% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During five years of share price growth, Navin Fluorine International actually saw its EPS drop 4.1% per year.
So it's hard to argue that the earnings per share are the best metric to judge the company, as it may not be optimized for profits at this point. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.
The modest 0.3% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. In contrast revenue growth of 17% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Navin Fluorine International is growing, a real positive. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Navin Fluorine International is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Navin Fluorine International will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Navin Fluorine International's TSR for the last 5 years was 149%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Navin Fluorine International has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 46% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 20% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. If you would like to research Navin Fluorine International in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Navin Fluorine International might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:NAVINFLUOR
Navin Fluorine International
Manufactures and sells specialty fluorochemicals in India and internationally.
Excellent balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.
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