A Look At The Fair Value Of Milton Industries Limited (NSE:MILTON)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Milton Industries Limited (NSE:MILTON) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Milton Industries

The method

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹38.6m	₹41.8m	₹45.1m	₹48.5m	₹52.2m	₹56.1m	₹60.2m	₹64.6m	₹69.3m	₹74.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 8.67%	Est @ 8.23%	Est @ 7.91%	Est @ 7.7%	Est @ 7.55%	Est @ 7.44%	Est @ 7.36%	Est @ 7.31%	Est @ 7.28%	Est @ 7.25%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 25%	₹30.8	₹26.6	₹22.9	₹19.6	₹16.9	₹14.4	₹12.4	₹10.6	₹9.1	₹7.7

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹170m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (7.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 25%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹74m× (1 + 7.2%) ÷ (25%– 7.2%) = ₹438m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹438m÷ ( 1 + 25%)¹⁰= ₹46m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹216m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹13.3, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Milton Industries as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 25%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.917. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Milton Industries, we've compiled three pertinent items you should assess:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Milton Industries (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Indian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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