Heranba Industries Limited's (NSE:HERANBA) 26% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Heranba Industries Limited (NSE:HERANBA) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 26% gain and recovering from prior weakness. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 3.2% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, given around half the companies in India have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 32x, you may consider Heranba Industries as a stock to potentially avoid with its 42.5x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

For instance, Heranba Industries' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Heranba Industries

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Heranba Industries, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Heranba Industries' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 67%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 78% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 25% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Heranba Industries is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Heranba Industries' P/E is getting right up there since its shares have risen strongly. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Heranba Industries revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Heranba Industries (of which 2 are potentially serious!) you should know about.

You might be able to find a better investment than Heranba Industries. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com