Earnings Miss: Greenply Industries Limited Missed EPS By 44% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Greenply Industries Limited (NSE:GREENPLY) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.5% to ₹293 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at ₹1.27, some 44% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at ₹6.9b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Greenply Industries' 13 analysts is for revenues of ₹26.7b in 2026. This reflects a modest 4.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 40% to ₹9.54. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹27.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹11.25 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for Greenply Industries

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of ₹391, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Greenply Industries' valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Greenply Industries at ₹431 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹336. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Greenply Industries is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Greenply Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 8.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 40% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Greenply Industries is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹391, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Greenply Industries going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Greenply Industries that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.