Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Grasim Industries Limited (NSE:GRASIM) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Grasim Industries
What Is Grasim Industries's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Grasim Industries had ₹730.0b of debt in March 2022, down from ₹774.1b, one year before. On the flip side, it has ₹179.7b in cash leading to net debt of about ₹550.3b.
How Strong Is Grasim Industries' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Grasim Industries had liabilities of ₹578.8b due within a year, and liabilities of ₹1.15t falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹179.7b as well as receivables valued at ₹196.8b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹1.36t.
This deficit casts a shadow over the ₹886.8b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Grasim Industries would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Grasim Industries's debt is 2.7 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.4 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. On a slightly more positive note, Grasim Industries grew its EBIT at 11% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Grasim Industries can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, Grasim Industries's free cash flow amounted to 47% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Mulling over Grasim Industries's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Grasim Industries has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Grasim Industries you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:GRASIM
Grasim Industries
Primarily operates in fibre, yarn, pulp, chemicals, textile, fertilizers, and insulators businesses in India and internationally.
Moderate second-rate dividend payer.