Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Emmbi Industries Limited (NSE:EMMBI) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Emmbi Industries
What Is Emmbi Industries's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2023 Emmbi Industries had debt of ₹1.55b, up from ₹1.43b in one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
A Look At Emmbi Industries' Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Emmbi Industries had liabilities of ₹1.45b falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₹675.2m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹13.6m as well as receivables valued at ₹729.3m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling ₹1.39b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of ₹2.30b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Weak interest cover of 1.6 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.6 hit our confidence in Emmbi Industries like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, Emmbi Industries saw its EBIT tank 38% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Emmbi Industries's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Emmbi Industries reported free cash flow worth 11% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
On the face of it, Emmbi Industries's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And furthermore, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow also fails to instill confidence. We're quite clear that we consider Emmbi Industries to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Emmbi Industries (including 2 which are a bit concerning) .
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:EMMBI
Emmbi Industries
Engages in the manufacturing, trading, and selling of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP) woven polymer based products in India and internationally.
Proven track record with adequate balance sheet.