The Asian Paints Limited (NSE:ASIANPAINT) Annual Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Asian Paints Limited (NSE:ASIANPAINT) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to ₹2,771 in the past week. Asian Paints reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of ₹355b and statutory earnings per share of ₹56.94, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Asian Paints after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Asian Paints

After the latest results, the 36 analysts covering Asian Paints are now predicting revenues of ₹382.8b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a modest 7.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be ₹56.18, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹395.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹59.18 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹3,106 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Asian Paints at ₹4,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹2,337. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Asian Paints' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Asian Paints' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Asian Paints.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Asian Paints. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Asian Paints going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Asian Paints' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.