Asian Paints Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Asian Paints Limited (NSE:ASIANPAINT) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Asian Paints missed earnings this time around, with ₹90b revenue coming in 3.3% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ₹12.20 also fell short of expectations by 15%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Asian Paints

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Asian Paints from 37 analysts is for revenues of ₹373.6b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 6.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be ₹53.47, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹380.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹55.85 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at ₹2,910, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Asian Paints analyst has a price target of ₹3,650 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹2,100. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Asian Paints' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Asian Paints is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Asian Paints. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Asian Paints' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹2,910, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Asian Paints analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com