Arabian Petroleum Limited's (NSE:ARABIAN) Shares Bounce 26% But Its Business Still Trails The Market

The Arabian Petroleum Limited (NSE:ARABIAN) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 26%. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

Even after such a large jump in price, given about half the companies in India have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 35x, you may still consider Arabian Petroleum as a highly attractive investment with its 16.4x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for Arabian Petroleum as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Arabian Petroleum

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Arabian Petroleum, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Arabian Petroleum would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 36% gain to the company's bottom line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 74% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 25% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's understandable that Arabian Petroleum's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting to see the recent limited growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Final Word

Shares in Arabian Petroleum are going to need a lot more upward momentum to get the company's P/E out of its slump. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Arabian Petroleum maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its recent three-year growth being lower than the wider market forecast, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Arabian Petroleum you should be aware of, and 2 of them are potentially serious.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Arabian Petroleum. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.