Is APL Apollo Tubes (NSE:APLAPOLLO) A Risky Investment?

Published
June 15, 2022
NSEI:APLAPOLLO
Source: Shutterstock

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies APL Apollo Tubes Limited (NSE:APLAPOLLO) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for APL Apollo Tubes

What Is APL Apollo Tubes's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2022 APL Apollo Tubes had ₹5.81b of debt, an increase on ₹5.20b, over one year. On the flip side, it has ₹3.81b in cash leading to net debt of about ₹1.99b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NSEI:APLAPOLLO Debt to Equity History June 15th 2022

How Healthy Is APL Apollo Tubes' Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that APL Apollo Tubes had liabilities of ₹14.3b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹5.59b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹3.81b and ₹3.43b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling ₹12.6b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Given APL Apollo Tubes has a market capitalization of ₹219.1b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. But either way, APL Apollo Tubes has virtually no net debt, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

APL Apollo Tubes has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.21. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 29.1 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. In addition to that, we're happy to report that APL Apollo Tubes has boosted its EBIT by 45%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if APL Apollo Tubes can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, APL Apollo Tubes recorded free cash flow worth 53% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

The good news is that APL Apollo Tubes's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its EBIT growth rate is also very heartening. Looking at the bigger picture, we think APL Apollo Tubes's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. While debt does bring risk, when used wisely it can also bring a higher return on equity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for APL Apollo Tubes you should know about.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

Discounted cash flow calculation for every stock

Simply Wall St does a detailed discounted cash flow calculation every 6 hours for every stock on the market, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any company just search here. It’s FREE.

Make Confident Investment Decisions

Simply Wall St's Editorial Team provides unbiased, factual reporting on global stocks using in-depth fundamental analysis.
Find out more about our editorial guidelines and team.