Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Dabur India Limited (NSE:DABUR)

Dabur India Limited's (NSE:DABUR) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 50.2x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 32x and even P/E's below 18x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Recent times haven't been advantageous for Dabur India as its earnings have been rising slower than most other companies. It might be that many expect the uninspiring earnings performance to recover significantly, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Dabur India

Keen to find out how analysts think Dabur India's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Dabur India would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, the company posted a result that saw barely any deviation from a year ago. This isn't what shareholders were looking for as it means they've been left with a 1.5% decline in EPS over the last three years in total. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 14% per annum over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 19% each year growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's alarming that Dabur India's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Dabur India currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Dabur India that you need to take into consideration.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.