Earnings Not Telling The Story For Davangere Sugar Company Limited (NSE:DAVANGERE) After Shares Rise 29%

Davangere Sugar Company Limited (NSE:DAVANGERE) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 29% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 40% over that time.

Following the firm bounce in price, Davangere Sugar's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 50.6x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 27x and even P/E's below 15x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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The earnings growth achieved at Davangere Sugar over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Davangere Sugar

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Davangere Sugar's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Davangere Sugar?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Davangere Sugar's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 21% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 55% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 25% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Davangere Sugar's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Shares in Davangere Sugar have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Davangere Sugar revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Davangere Sugar (at least 2 which are a bit concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Davangere Sugar, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.