Stock Analysis

Despite lower earnings than five years ago, Balrampur Chini Mills (NSE:BALRAMCHIN) investors are up 414% since then

NSEI:BALRAMCHIN
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For many, the main point of investing in the stock market is to achieve spectacular returns. And highest quality companies can see their share prices grow by huge amounts. To wit, the Balrampur Chini Mills Limited (NSE:BALRAMCHIN) share price has soared 394% over five years. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. In more good news, the share price has risen 16% in thirty days.

In light of the stock dropping 8.3% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Balrampur Chini Mills actually saw its EPS drop 4.2% per year.

By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We doubt the modest 0.6% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. We are not particularly impressed by the annual compound revenue growth of 2.5% over five years. So it seems one might have to take closer look at earnings and revenue trends to see how they might influence the share price.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NSEI:BALRAMCHIN Earnings and Revenue Growth April 11th 2025

This free interactive report on Balrampur Chini Mills' balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Balrampur Chini Mills, it has a TSR of 414% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Balrampur Chini Mills shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 35% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, that falls short of the 39% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Balrampur Chini Mills you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

But note: Balrampur Chini Mills may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Balrampur Chini Mills might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.