AWL Agri Business Limited Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

Investors in AWL Agri Business Limited (NSE:AWL) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.1% to close at ₹278 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues came in 5.3% below expectations, at ₹171b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of ₹9.44 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on AWL Agri Business after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the six analysts covering AWL Agri Business are now predicting revenues of ₹695.6b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 4.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 6.9% to ₹8.26 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹718.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹8.75 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for AWL Agri Business

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of ₹318, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on AWL Agri Business' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic AWL Agri Business analyst has a price target of ₹397 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹260. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await AWL Agri Business shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that AWL Agri Business' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.0% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.2% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 9.5% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, AWL Agri Business is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at ₹318, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple AWL Agri Business analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether AWL Agri Business is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.