Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited Just Missed EPS By 11%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (NSE:HINDPETRO) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 2.5% to ₹388. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at ₹4.3t, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at ₹31.66 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 17 analysts covering Hindustan Petroleum, is for revenues of ₹4.07t in 2026. This implies a perceptible 5.8% reduction in Hindustan Petroleum's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 51% to ₹47.68. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹4.14t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹50.33 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Hindustan Petroleum

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at ₹420, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Hindustan Petroleum analyst has a price target of ₹565 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹210. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.8% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Hindustan Petroleum is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Hindustan Petroleum's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹420, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hindustan Petroleum. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Hindustan Petroleum going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Hindustan Petroleum is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.