Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (NSE:HINDPETRO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.7% to ₹383 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Revenue of ₹1.1t surpassed estimates by 5.1%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 94% below expectations at ₹0.67 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Hindustan Petroleum

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 19 analysts covering Hindustan Petroleum is for revenues of ₹4.10t in 2025. This implies a discernible 6.4% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 70% to ₹33.55. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹4.31t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹42.01 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of ₹389, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Hindustan Petroleum's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hindustan Petroleum at ₹523 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹200. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 12% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 15% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.1% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Hindustan Petroleum's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hindustan Petroleum. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hindustan Petroleum. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hindustan Petroleum going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Hindustan Petroleum is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.