Earnings Miss: Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited Missed EPS By 49% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (NSE:BPCL) filed its second-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.5% to ₹311 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at ₹5.38, some 49% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at ₹1.0t. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Bharat Petroleum

Following last week's earnings report, Bharat Petroleum's 16 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be ₹4.40t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be ₹30.53, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹4.62t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹34.01 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of ₹344, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Bharat Petroleum's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Bharat Petroleum, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹460 and the most bearish at ₹250 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 15% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Bharat Petroleum is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Bharat Petroleum. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Bharat Petroleum analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Bharat Petroleum is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.