Aegis Logistics Limited Recorded A 44% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Aegis Logistics Limited (NSE:AEGISCHEM) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.0% to ₹307 in the past week. Aegis Logistics reported a serious revenue miss, with sales of ₹6.8b falling a huge 44% short of analyst estimates. The bright side is that statutory earnings per share of ₹6.36 were in line with forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Aegis Logistics

Following the latest results, Aegis Logistics' three analysts are now forecasting revenues of ₹45.0b in 2022. This would be a notable 16% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 38% to ₹10.35. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹63.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹11.11 in 2022. It looks like sentiment has fallen somewhat in the aftermath of these results, with a large cut to revenue estimates and a minor downgrade to earnings per share numbers as well.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of ₹382, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Aegis Logistics' valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Aegis Logistics analyst has a price target of ₹422 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹326. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Aegis Logistics is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aegis Logistics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.4% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Aegis Logistics is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹382, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aegis Logistics going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Aegis Logistics is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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