Stock Analysis

Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Jubilant FoodWorks Limited (NSE:JUBLFOOD) After Its Third-Quarter Results

NSEI:JUBLFOOD
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Shareholders might have noticed that Jubilant FoodWorks Limited (NSE:JUBLFOOD) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.6% to ₹495 in the past week. Revenues came in 2.3% below expectations, at ₹14b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of ₹1.00 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Jubilant FoodWorks

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NSEI:JUBLFOOD Earnings and Revenue Growth February 3rd 2024

Following the latest results, Jubilant FoodWorks' 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of ₹63.0b in 2025. This would be a meaningful 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 104% to ₹6.83. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹65.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹8.12 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹503 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Jubilant FoodWorks analyst has a price target of ₹626 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹320. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Jubilant FoodWorks' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Jubilant FoodWorks' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Jubilant FoodWorks is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at ₹503, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Jubilant FoodWorks going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Jubilant FoodWorks (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.