Stock Analysis
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- NSEI:IRCTC
Indian Railway Catering & Tourism's (NSE:IRCTC) investors will be pleased with their fantastic 382% return over the last five years
Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation Limited (NSE:IRCTC) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 16% in the last quarter. But that does not change the realty that the stock's performance has been terrific, over five years. To be precise, the stock price is 368% higher than it was five years ago, a wonderful performance by any measure. Arguably, the recent fall is to be expected after such a strong rise. But the real question is whether the business fundamentals can improve over the long term.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
View our latest analysis for Indian Railway Catering & Tourism
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over half a decade, Indian Railway Catering & Tourism managed to grow its earnings per share at 35% a year. That makes the EPS growth particularly close to the yearly share price growth of 36%. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free interactive report on Indian Railway Catering & Tourism's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Indian Railway Catering & Tourism's TSR for the last 5 years was 382%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Indian Railway Catering & Tourism provided a TSR of 25% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 37% per year for five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Indian Railway Catering & Tourism that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:IRCTC
Indian Railway Catering & Tourism
Engages in the provision of catering and hospitality, Internet ticketing, travel and tourism, and packaged drinking water services in India.