The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Zodiac Energy Limited (NSE:ZODIAC) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Zodiac Energy
What Is Zodiac Energy's Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Zodiac Energy had ₹377.1m of debt, up from ₹258.9m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹52.9m, its net debt is less, at about ₹324.2m.
A Look At Zodiac Energy's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Zodiac Energy had liabilities of ₹418.8m due within a year, and liabilities of ₹121.1m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹52.9m as well as receivables valued at ₹252.2m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total ₹234.9m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Of course, Zodiac Energy has a market capitalization of ₹2.36b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Zodiac Energy's debt is 2.8 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.3 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Looking on the bright side, Zodiac Energy boosted its EBIT by a silky 81% in the last year. Like a mother's loving embrace of a newborn that sort of growth builds resilience, putting the company in a stronger position to manage its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Zodiac Energy's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Zodiac Energy saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
Based on what we've seen Zodiac Energy is not finding it easy, given its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. There's no doubt that its ability to to grow its EBIT is pretty flash. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Zodiac Energy's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Zodiac Energy has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:ZODIAC
Zodiac Energy
Engages in the installation of solar power generation plants and related items primarily in India.
Proven track record slight.